A while back, when the first reports of the delay for the “true Video” iPod surfaced, I argued that it might not be such a bad thing for Apple if there were a few months between new iPods.
It seemed to me that there was a possibility of market fatigue with all of the iPods already out there, as well as a bit of a backlash by consumers who discovered that the 60GB iPod that they had just purchased to watch episodes of Battlestar Galactica on a cross-country flight wasn’t the “true” video iPod.
However, there are fresh reports of even longer delays, and we may look back at these delays as the tipping point where the iPod stopped being the center of the universe and started being just another cool gadget.
According to a variety of reports Wednesday, including those from Bloomberg and AP, [analyst Shaw] Wu is predicting that the widescreen video iPod, expected out this fall, might come out until the first half of 2007. The next iPod nano might not make it to store shelves until December, rather than September.
The first half of 2007. To put it into perspective, that can be as far away as a fracking year from now! Think about how different the portable video landscape is today from June 30, 2005. It’s only going to grow faster, and continue to branch off into totally unexpected directions, some of which might end up leaving Apple behind.
Which is why, in a weird way, it’s all about the Christmas shopping season, which I think starts in September these days. If they can get it out for Christmas, no problem. People are still so locked into the iPod right now that their new “true” video widescreen version would be a no-brainer.
If not, though, I think that all bets are off. For one thing, it’s entirely possible that somebody else could get a cool-looking portable audio/video player out there, strike up a couple of deals with major content providers, and wham! Apple’s market share takes a hit.
You have to remember that a lot of content providers aren’t all that in love with Apple anyways, and would love to have a market-based reason to not rely as much on iTunes.
And of course, the report could be dead wrong, and we’ll all be watching Lost on our new Video iPods by Halloween.
Could everybody please quit acting as if Shawn Wu actually knows anything? This so-called “analyst” makes up a story out of thin air about an unnanounced product and speculates that it might be late, and everyone acts as if he heard it straight from Tony Fadell.
Anyone who actually KNOWS where the development cycle is in the iPod group is keeping their mouth shut until Steve is ready to say something about it.
-jcr
Well I for one hope Shawn Wu is clueless. Otherwise it’ll be kind of hard to buy a new iPod every year – which, last I heard, was the plan.
“Leaks”
“According to a secret report”
“A highly placed source within Apple…”
Give me a break!
If you have a job in Apple, probably with stock option, will you leak info just for the hell of it?
Doh!
It would seem to me that you would leak info in order to prepare the marketplace for the delay of your product while hoping against hope that you are wrong.